A decade after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in universities but very few elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with even the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. Both writes two essays that strive for impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates range over flags and symbols, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has has important lessons to gain from the other's arguments."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
